ESHM20 – Seismogenic Sources

The seismogenic source model of ESHM20 is built upon the foundation of the ESHM13 (Wössner et al., 2015), enhanced with newly developed local and regional seismogenic sources. The main seismogenic source model consists of four distinct source models aimed at capturing the spatial and temporal uncertainty of the earthquake rate forecast across the entire pan-European region:

  • The area sources model is assumed to be the pan-European consensus model, incorporating the national area sources provided by local experts and fully cross-border harmonisation.
  • Active faults and background smoothed seismicity, a hybrid seismicity model that combines the updated active faults datasets with the background seismicity in regions where faults are identified. The kernel smoothed seismicity model represents an alternative to the area sources model in regions without active faults. 
  • Subduction sources depicting both the subduction interface and in-slab of the Hellenic, Cyprian, Calabrian and Gibraltar Arcs.
  • Non-subducting deep seismicity sources describe the nested seismicity with depth in Vrancea, Romania, and the cluster of deep seismicity in the southern Iberia Peninsula.
ESHM20 Seismogenic Models–Cumulative Earthquake M>4.5
ESHM20 Seismogenic Models–Cumulative Earthquake Rate Forecast of M>4.5 of Area Source Mode (per year/km2)
ESHM20 Seismogenic Models–Cumulative Earthquake Rate Forecast of M>6.5
ESHM20 Seismogenic Models–Cumulative Earthquake Rate Forecast of M>6.5 of Hybrid model – Active Faults and kernel smoothed seismicity (per year/km2)


Danciu L., Nandan S., Reyes C., Basili R., Weatherill G., Beauval C., Rovida A., Vilanova S., Sesetyan K., Bard P-Y., Cotton F., Wiemer S., Giardini D. (2021) - The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview. EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0,